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Election campaign week 47 and a half update

While everyone else does their weekly campaign summaries on a Friday, I get around to it whenever... in this case the following Wednesday.

(i) "Coalition gains one point on Labor!" Well golly gee. Four words: Statistical. Margin. Of. Error.

(ii) The former president of the Australian Conservation Federation is now a shot duck. Peter Garrett won't be Environment Minister, indeed he seems to lack any of the skill or experience required of a senior cabinet minister. (The same could be said of Alexander Downer, but that's another story.) He may well have a niche as a junior minister in the environment portfolio, he might be a prospect in Indigenous Affairs, otherwise give him the Arts.

(iii) John Howard gave a dreadful, shifty interview on Insiders on Sunday morning. He repeatedly evaded questions he didn't want to answer and instead was more interested in making speeches and reciting mantras. And in breathlessly revealing his damning new evidence against Peter Garrett - conveniently leaving out the adjectives "circumstantial" and "spurious". His body language was all "I'm a legend, get me out of here".

(iv) Regardless of the quality of the underlying policies, judicious "Me-tooism" is a sign of a good Opposition Leader. Which Kevin Rudd won't be in three weeks.

(v) Prepare to shudder. Could Tony Abbott become leader of the Liberal Party in a Steven Bradbury-esque contest? If I was picking a bolter as a long-term investment, I'd back Mal Brough... but he's in danger of losing his seat in Longman.